Gender Equality Through Turnover: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Term Limit Reforms in Italy

Summary:  View help for Summary This study examines the conditions under which mayoral term limits affect female political representation, using the Italian context as a natural experiment. Italian mayors were initially restricted to two consecutive five-year terms, but two reforms extended the cap to three terms in smaller municipalities: the first in 2014, applied to municipalities with fewer than 3,000 inhabitants, and the second in 2022, extended to municipalities with fewer than 5,000 inhabitants. Larger municipalities, unaffected by the reforms, serve as a comparison group in a difference-in-discontinuities design. The principal research question is whether—and under what circumstances—term limits foster the entry of women into top local political positions. The study also investigates the mechanisms through which term limits may affect female representation, distinguishing among three channels: a "replacement" effect (the likelihood that a woman replaces a term-limited incumbent), a "selection" effect (whether shorter time horizons differentially influence the attractiveness of political careers for men and women), and an "exposure" effect (whether the presence of female politicians shapes the attitudes of voters, party members, and potential candidates over time). Additional topics covered include incumbency advantage, electoral competition, candidate quantity and quality, electoral turnout, and the interaction between term limits and gender quotas at lower levels of the political hierarchy.

The data cover the universe of Italian municipal elections held between 1992 and 2023, excluding regions with special status. Two main datasets were assembled from the Open Data section of the Eligendo portal of the Italian Ministry of the Interior, complemented with information received directly from the Ministry. The first dataset records all Italian local administrators as of December 31 of each year, including name, age, gender, professional title, educational attainment, party affiliation, and assigned position (mayor, executive committee member, or councillor). The second dataset contains information on mayoral candidates, including age, gender, party affiliation, votes received, and electoral turnout. Municipal population information was obtained from the Italian Census. The analysis focuses primarily on municipalities with populations between 1,000 and 7,000 inhabitants surrounding the 3,000 and 5,000 thresholds.

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Term limits; female political representation; Italian local elections

Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage Italy

Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1992 – 2023

Universe:  View help for Universe Italian Local Elections