NAFTA and drug-related violence in Mexico

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Eduardo Hidalgo, University of Cologne; Erik Hornung, University of Cologne; Pablo Selaya, University of Copenhagen

Version:  View help for Version V1

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Project Citation: 

Hidalgo, Eduardo, Hornung, Erik, and Selaya, Pablo. NAFTA and drug-related violence in Mexico. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2026-01-21. https://doi.org/10.3886/E244525V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary We study how NAFTA changed the geography of violence in Mexico. We propose that this open border policy increased trafficking profits of Mexican cartels, resulting in violent competition among them. We test this hypothesis by comparing changes in drug-related homicides after NAFTA's introduction in 1994 across municipalities with and without drug-trafficking routes. Routes are predicted least cost paths connecting municipalities with a recent history of detected drug trafficking with U.S. land ports of entry. On these routes, homicides increase by 2.1 per 100,000 inhabitants, which is equivalent to 26\% of the pre-NAFTA mean. These results cannot be explained by changes in worker's opportunity costs of using violence resulting from the trade shock.
Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources European Research Council (725194 CRIMTANG); Independent Research Fund Denmark (1127-00226B ILLECO); German Research Foundation (EXC 2126/2 - 390838866)

Scope of Project

Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage Mexico
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1990 – 1999


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V1 [2026-01-21]

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