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Project Citation: 

Masten, Matthew A., and Poirier, Alexandre. Data and Code for: The Effect of Omitted Variables on the Sign of Regression Coefficients. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2026. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2026-06-23. https://doi.org/10.3886/E242381V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary We show that, depending on how the impact of omitted variables is measured, it can be substantially easier for omitted variables to flip coefficient signs than to drive them to zero. This behavior occurs with “Oster’s delta” (Oster 2019), a widely reported robustness measure. Consequently, any time this measure is large—suggesting that omitted variables may be unimportant—a much smaller value reverses the sign of the parameter of interest. We propose a modified measure of robustness to address this concern. We illustrate our results in four empirical applications and two meta-analyses. We implement our methods in the companion Stata module regsensitivity.
Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources National Science Foundation (1943138)

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Identification; Treatment effects; Partial Identification; Sensitivity Analysis; Unconfoundedness
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      C14 Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
      C18 Methodological Issues: General
      C21 Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions
      C25 Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
      C51 Model Construction and Estimation
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) experimental data; observational data
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes This paper re-analyzes datasets from 14 replication packages.

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source Arbatlı, C. E., Ashraf, Q. H., Galor, O., and Klemp, M. 2020. Data and Code for: “Diversity and Conflict.” Econometrica, 88(2), 727–797. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA13734

Bazzi, S., Fiszbein, M., & Gebresilasse, M. 2020. Data and Code for: “Frontier Culture: The Roots and Persistence of “Rugged Individualism” in the United States.” Econometrica, 88(6), 2329–2368. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA16484

Bertrand, M., Burgess, R., Chawla, A., and Xu, G. 2020. Data and Code for: “The Glittering Prizes: Career Incentives and Bureaucrat Performance.” The Review of Economic Studies, 87(2), 626–655. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz029

Dippel, C., and Heblich, S.  2021. Data and Code for: “Leadership in Social Movements. The Forty-Eighters in the Civil War.” Nashville, TN: American Economic Association; distributed by Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, Ann Arbor, MI. https://doi.org/10.3886/E120404V1

Enke, B. 2026. Data and Code for: “Moral Values and Voting." Distributed by Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/7LLXOU

Eugster, B., and Parchet, R. 2026. Data and Code for “Culture and Taxes.” Distributed by Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/2I2DPX

Gavazza, A., Nardotto, M., and Valletti, T. 2019. Data and Code for: “Internet and Politics: Evidence from U.K. Local Elections and Local Government Policies.” The Review of Economic Studies, 86(5), 2092–2135. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy028

Gregg, A. 2020. “Imperial Russian Factory Database, 1894-1908.” Nashville, TN: American Economic Association; distributed by Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, Ann Arbor, MI. https://doi.org/10.3886/E110681V1

Grosfeld, I., Sakalli, S. O., and Zhuravskaya, E. 2020. Data and Code for: “Middleman Minorities and Ethnic Violence: Anti-Jewish Pogroms in the Russian Empire.” The Review of Economic Studies, 87(1), 289–342. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz001

Heldring, L. 2021. Data and Code for: “The Origins of Violence in Rwanda.” The Review of Economic Studies, 88(2), 730–763. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa028

Oster, E. 2019. Data and Code for: “Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 37(2), 187–204. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2016.1227711

Satyanath, S., Voigtländer, N., and Voth, H.-J.  2026. Data and Code for: "Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party." Distributed by Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EE6I7N

Squicciarini, M. P. 2020. Data and Code for: “Devotion and Development: Religiosity, Education, and Economic Progress in 19th-Century France.” Nashville, TN: American Economic Association, 2020; distributed by Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, Ann Arbor, MI. https://doi.org/10.3886/E119862V1

Tabellini, M. 2020. Data and Code for: “Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration.” The Review of Economic Studies, 87(1), 454–486. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz027



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