Data and Code for: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Paula E. Gobbi, Université Libre de Bruxelles; Anne Hannusch, University of Bonn; Pauline Rossi, Ecole Polytechnique-CREST

Version: View help for Version V1

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Project Citation:

Gobbi, Paula E., Hannusch, Anne, and Rossi, Pauline. Data and Code for: Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2026. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2026-02-02. https://doi.org/10.3886/E239791V1

Project Description

Summary: Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower child and maternal mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are, on average, not associated with greater improvements in human capital, real per capita GDP, or survival rates. Notably, most of sub-Saharan Africa experienced smaller fertility declines than predicted by economic and health progress, whereas parts of Asia and Latin America saw larger-than-expected declines, and some East Asian countries even reached record-low fertility levels. To understand why economic and health progress alone fail to account for most of the observed changes in fertility, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: fertility; demographic transition; marriage; polygamy; inheritance

JEL Classification:
      J10 Demographic Economics: General
      J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
      J12 Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure; Domestic Abuse
      J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
      N30 Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: General, International, or Comparative
      O10 Economic Development: General
      O20 Development Planning and Policy: General

Geographic Coverage: worldwide

Time Period(s): 1960 – 2023

Collection Date(s): 6/2025 – 7/2025

Universe: All countries worldwide

Data Type(s): aggregate data

Methodology

Data Source:

Barro, Robert J. and Jong Wha Lee (2013). Data for: “A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010”. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001.
Giuliano, P. and N. Nunn (2018). Data for: “Ancestral Characteristics of Modern Populations”. https://doi.org/10.1080/20780389.2018.1435267.
Murdock, George Peter (1967). Data for: “Ethnographic Atlas: A Summary”. https://doi.org/10.2307/3772751.
World Bank (2025). Data for: “World Development Indicators”. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed June–July 2025.

Unit(s) of Observation: Country

Geographic Unit: Country

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Published Versions

V1 [2026-02-02]

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