Data and Code for: "Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall, and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics"

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Mark Gertler, New York University and NBER; Christopher Huckfeldt, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Antonella Trigari, Bocconi University, CEPR and IGIER

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  empirics_CPS 12/13/2025 12:33:PM
  empirics_SIPP 12/13/2025 12:27:PM
  final_output 12/13/2025 12:44:PM
  model 07/31/2025 03:06:PM
LICENSE.txt text/plain 15.3 KB 12/13/2025 07:28:AM
ReadMe.pdf application/pdf 298.5 KB 12/14/2025 06:07:AM
masterScript.bsh application/x-sh 4.4 KB 12/12/2025 12:28:PM

Project Citation: 

Gertler, Mark, Huckfeldt, Christopher, and Trigari, Antonella. Data and Code for: “Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall, and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics.” Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2026. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2026-02-04. https://doi.org/10.3886/E237010V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle. While some have emphasized a stabilizing effect due to recall hiring, we quantify from the data an important countercyclical destabilizing effect due to "loss-of-recall'', whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently. We develop a quantitative model allowing for endogenous flows of workers across employment and both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures both pre- and post-pandemic unemployment dynamics, including the recessionary role of loss-of-recall. We use our structural model to show that the Paycheck Protection program generated sizable employment gains, in part by significantly reducing loss-of-recall.



Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Unemployment; Cycles; Recessions; Recall; Layoff
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity


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Published Versions

V1 [2026-02-04]

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DDI 2.5

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