Replication data for: Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Yunus Aksoy; Henrique S. Basso; Ron P. Smith; Tobias Grasl

Version: View help for Version V1

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data			05/30/2025 07:24:PM
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Manifest-v1.txt	text/plain	3.6 KB	05/30/2025 03:25:PM
original.zip	application/zip	191.3 MB	05/30/2025 03:24:PM

Project Citation:

Aksoy, Yunus, Basso, Henrique S., Smith, Ron P., and Grasl, Tobias. Replication data for: Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2019. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-05-30. https://doi.org/10.3886/E231528V1

Project Description

Summary: We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970–2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment and real interest rates across OECD countries.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      E22 Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
      E23 Macroeconomics: Production
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      E43 Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
      J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
      J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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Published Versions

V1 [2025-05-30]

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