Code for Instrumental Variables Methods Reveal Larger Effects of Menopausal Hormone Therapy in the Landmark Women’s Health Initiative Clinical Trial

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Josh Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Amanda E. Kowalski, University of Michigan; Ljubica Ristovska, Yale University; Marcia L. Stefanick, Stanford University

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
code			05/02/2025 02:35:AM
README.pdf	application/pdf	138.9 KB	05/01/2025 10:33:PM
master.do	text/plain	3 KB	05/01/2025 10:35:PM

Project Citation:

Angrist, Josh, Kowalski, Amanda E., Ristovska, Ljubica, and Stefanick, Marcia L. Code for Instrumental Variables Methods Reveal Larger Effects of Menopausal Hormone Therapy in the Landmark Women’s Health Initiative Clinical Trial. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-05-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E228401V1

Project Description

Summary: Landmark results from the Women’s Health Initiative trial showed that random assignment to menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) elevated risks of breast cancer and other adverse events. Recent analyses argue that MHT risks are small. These analyses report intention-to-treat (ITT) effects, ignoring the fact that many women assigned intervention were non-adherent, while many women assigned control initiated treatment. Instrumental variable (IV) methods and adherence data allow us to estimate effects of MHT on compliers who took MHT if and only if assigned. IV estimates show risks and benefits that are substantially larger than the ITT estimates used to inform MHT guidelines.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      C10 Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
      C18 Methodological Issues: General
      I10 Health: General

Geographic Coverage: Global

Data Type(s): program source code

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Published Versions

V1 [2025-05-12]

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