Data and Code for: Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Holger Breinlich, University of Surrey; Elsa Leromain, University of Antwerp; Dennis Novy, University of Warwick; Thomas Sampson, London School of Economics

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  replication package 08/28/2025 05:57:AM

Project Citation: 

Breinlich, Holger, Leromain, Elsa, Novy, Dennis, and Sampson, Thomas. Data and Code for: Import Liberalization as Export Destruction? Evidence from the United States. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2026. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2026-03-26. https://doi.org/10.3886/E213521V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Note: This package provides the data and code for this research article.

Abstract: In trade models with scale economies import liberalization reduces exports within industries by shrinking real market potential. We find this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). There was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our estimates to calibrate a quantitative model and show that scale economies are economically important for trade policy analysis. Although PNTR increased aggregate US exports relative to GDP, exports declined in the most exposed industries. US gains from PNTR are positive, but 30 percent smaller than under constant returns.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Trade policy; Import liberalization; Comparative advantage; Scale economies; China shock
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      F12 Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
      F13 Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
      F15 Economic Integration
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United States, China, World
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1995 – 2007
Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 2020 – 2024
Universe:  View help for Universe Annual trade flows at industry level
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data; event/transaction data

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source
  • NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database, National Bureau of Economic Research (1958-2018).
  • Bureau of Economic Analysis, Input-Output Accounts (1997).
  • CEPII Gravity Database, CEPII, Paris.
  • Feenstra, R., Romalis, J., Schott, P., 2002. US imports, exports, and tariff data (1989-2001).
  • BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level, CEPII, Paris (1994-2007).
  • World Input-Output Database, University of Groningen, Netherlands.
  • United Nations, UN Comtrade Database (1997).
Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation International trade flows at industry level, Tariff data at industry level

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Published Versions

V1 [2026-03-26]

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