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Multidimensional Economic Complexity and Fiscal Crises

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Goran Hristovski, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics; Gjorgji Gockov, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics; Viktor Stojkoski, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics

Version:  View help for Version V2

Name File Type Size Last Modified
Data_ECIFiscalcrises.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 532.6 KB 10/17/2024 06:03:AM

Project Citation: 

Hristovski, Goran, Gockov, Gjorgji, and Stojkoski, Viktor. Multidimensional Economic Complexity and Fiscal Crises. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2024-10-17. https://doi.org/10.3886/E209703V2

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Recent studies highlight economic complexity’s role in mitigating fiscal crises, often measured via an economy’s trade structure. Trade, however, is just one facet of an economy’s structure and omits critical innovative activities like research. Here, we investigate how a multidimensional approach to economic complexity—including both trade and research structures—relates to fiscal instability. By using data on over 230 national fiscal crises from 1995 to 2021 and hazard duration analysis, we assess how measures of trade and research complexity combine to explain crisis likelihood. We find that the interaction of complexity dimensions significantly reduces crisis probability, whereas individual indexes alone are not robust predictors. This suggests that economies focusing on a single dimension may be more vulnerable, thus highlighting the importance of balanced development across multiple areas. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance economic resilience and mitigate fiscal risks.



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Published Versions

V5 [2025-04-01]

V4 [2025-03-31]

V3 [2024-10-17]

V2 [2024-10-17]

V1 [2024-10-17]

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