Data and Code for: Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Hee Soo Kim, Indiana University; Christian Matthes, Indiana University; Toan Phan, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  Data_prep 10/11/2024 07:46:PM
  Figure1 10/11/2024 07:46:PM
  Figure2 10/11/2024 07:46:PM
  Figure3_FigureA13_Table2 10/11/2024 07:46:PM
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  FigureA1 10/11/2024 07:48:PM
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Project Citation: 

Kim, Hee Soo, Matthes, Christian, and Phan, Toan. Data and Code for: Severe Weather and the Macroeconomy. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-03-11. https://doi.org/10.3886/E206581V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary We investigate the impact of severe weather shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past sixty years. Using a nonlinear vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impact becomes significant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to twenty months. Our findings suggest limited adaptation to the increased severity of weather in the United States, at least at the macroeconomic level.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms macroeconomics; weather
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E23 Macroeconomics: Production
      Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage USA national
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 4/1963 – 5/2019
Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 2020 – 2024
Universe:  View help for Universe Macroeconomic (national aggregate) data
Severe weather index (national aggregate) data
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data


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V1 [2025-03-11]

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