Data and Code for: Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Christina D. Romer, University of California-Berkeley; David H. Romer, University of California-Berkeley

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
APPENDIX_MONTHLY.RPF	text/plain	18.8 KB	02/26/2023 08:00:AM
APPENDIX_MONTHLY.out	text/plain	145.3 KB	02/26/2023 08:07:AM
APPENDIX_QUARTERLY.RPF	text/plain	25.1 KB	03/02/2023 11:55:PM
APPENDIX_QUARTERLY.out	text/plain	150.7 KB	03/03/2023 01:01:AM
Appendix B Figures.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	277.5 KB	04/10/2023 10:41:AM
DATA_MONTHLY.DED	application/octet-stream	102.5 KB	03/04/2023 03:22:PM
DATA_QUARTERLY.DED	application/octet-stream	14 KB	03/04/2023 01:38:PM
PAPER_MONTHLY.RPF	text/plain	5.9 KB	02/24/2023 10:16:PM
PAPER_MONTHLY.out	text/plain	28.2 KB	02/28/2023 06:05:PM
PAPER_QUARTERLY.RPF	text/plain	5.9 KB	03/04/2023 01:55:PM

Project Citation:

Romer, Christina D., and Romer, David H. Data and Code for: Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2023. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-05-22. https://doi.org/10.3886/E185843V1

Project Description

Summary: The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact of monetary policy as the focal application. We read the historical minutes and transcripts of Federal Reserve policymaking meetings to identify significant contractionary and expansionary changes in monetary policy not taken in response to current or prospective developments in real activity for the period 1946 to 2016. We find that such monetary shocks have large and significant effects on unemployment, output, and inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely occurred in 2022. Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      E52 Monetary Policy
      E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
      E65 Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
      N12 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: 1913-

Related Publications

Download this project

Published Versions

V1 [2023-05-22]

Export Metadata

Dublin Core

DDI 2.5

Report a Problem

Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.

This material is distributed exactly as it arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.