Data and Code for: Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Christina D. Romer, University of California-Berkeley; David H. Romer, University of California-Berkeley

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
APPENDIX_MONTHLY.RPF text/plain 18.8 KB 02/26/2023 08:00:AM
APPENDIX_MONTHLY.out text/plain 145.3 KB 02/26/2023 08:07:AM
APPENDIX_QUARTERLY.RPF text/plain 25.1 KB 03/02/2023 11:55:PM
APPENDIX_QUARTERLY.out text/plain 150.7 KB 03/03/2023 01:01:AM
Appendix B Figures.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 277.5 KB 04/10/2023 10:41:AM
DATA_MONTHLY.DED application/octet-stream 102.5 KB 03/04/2023 03:22:PM
DATA_QUARTERLY.DED application/octet-stream 14 KB 03/04/2023 01:38:PM
PAPER_MONTHLY.RPF text/plain 5.9 KB 02/24/2023 10:16:PM
PAPER_MONTHLY.out text/plain 28.2 KB 02/28/2023 06:05:PM
PAPER_QUARTERLY.RPF text/plain 5.9 KB 03/04/2023 01:55:PM

Project Citation: 

Romer, Christina D., and Romer, David H. Data and Code for: Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2023. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-05-22. https://doi.org/10.3886/E185843V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact of monetary policy as the focal application. We read the historical minutes and transcripts of Federal Reserve policymaking meetings to identify significant contractionary and expansionary changes in monetary policy not taken in response to current or prospective developments in real activity for the period 1946 to 2016. We find that such monetary shocks have large and significant effects on unemployment, output, and inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely occurred in 2022. Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024.



Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E52 Monetary Policy
      E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
      E65 Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
      N12 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: 1913-


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V1 [2023-05-22]

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