Data and Code for: Conflict and Inter-Group Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Vasily Korovkin, CERGE-EI; Alexey Makarin, MIT Sloan School of Management

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
Code			07/27/2022 11:56:AM
Data			04/17/2022 12:05:PM
Exhibits			04/17/2022 12:03:PM
README.pdf	application/pdf	190.6 KB	08/24/2022 09:09:AM

Project Citation:

Korovkin, Vasily, and Makarin, Alexey. Data and Code for: Conflict and Inter-Group Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2022. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-12-07. https://doi.org/10.3886/E167921V1

Project Description

Summary:

Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of inter-group social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically significant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of inter-group trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging, even away from combat areas.

Funding Sources: Czech Science Foundation (19-25383S); Harriman Institute at Columbia University; UCLA Anderson Center for Global Management

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Conflict; Intergroup tensions; international trade

JEL Classification:
      D22 Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
      D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
      F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
      F51 International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
      H56 National Security and War

Geographic Coverage: Ukraine, Russia

Time Period(s): 1/1/2013 – 12/31/2016

Data Type(s): administrative records data

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Published Versions

V1 [2022-12-07]

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DDI 2.5

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