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Name File Type Size Last Modified
  PP_DataAndCode 02/11/2020 06:17:PM
README.pdf application/pdf 55.3 KB 04/10/2020 07:21:AM

Project Citation: 

DellaVigna, Stefano, Vivalt, Eva, and Otis, Nicholas. Data and Code for: Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2020. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2020-05-18. https://doi.org/10.3886/E117601V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Forecasts of experimental results can clarify the interpretation of research results, mitigate publication bias, and improve experimental designs. We collect forecasts of the results of three Registered Reports preliminarily accepted to the Journal of Development Economics, randomly varying four features: (1) small versus large reference values; (2) whether predictions are in raw units or standard deviations; (3) text-entry versus slider responses; and (4) small versus large slider bounds. Forecasts are generally robust to elicitation features, though wider slider bounds are associated with higher forecasts throughout the forecast distribution. We make preliminary recommendations on how many forecasts should be gathered.
Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (G-2019-12325)

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      C80 Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs: General
      C90 Design of Experiments: General
      C93 Field Experiments
      O10 Economic Development: General
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) survey data


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