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Name File Type Size Last Modified
  Mac2015-0171_data 10/12/2019 08:00:PM
LICENSE.txt text/plain 14.6 KB 10/12/2019 04:00:PM

Project Citation: 

Bjørnland, Hilde C., Larsen, Vegard H., and Maih, Junior. Replication data for: Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2018. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E114121V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E12 General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      E52 Monetary Policy
      Q35 Hydrocarbon Resources
      Q43 Energy and the Macroeconomy


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