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Project Citation: 

Condra, Luke N., Long, James D., Shaver, Andrew C., and Wright, Austin L. Replication data for: The Logic of Insurgent Electoral Violence. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2018. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12.

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Competitive elections are essential to establishing the political legitimacy of democratizing regimes. We argue that insurgents undermine the state's mandate through electoral violence. We study insurgent violence during elections using newly declassified microdata on the conflict in Afghanistan. Our data track insurgent activity by hour to within meters of attack locations. Our results suggest that insurgents carefully calibrate their production of violence during elections to avoid harming civilians. Leveraging a novel instrumental variables approach, we find that violence depresses voting. Collectively, the results suggest insurgents try to depress turnout while avoiding backlash from harming civilians. Counterfactual exercises provide potentially actionable insights for safeguarding at-risk elections and enhancing electoral legitimacy in emerging democracies.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms insurgency; survey data; rainfall; instrumental variables; military records; voting; windspeed; elections; violence
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
      O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage Afghanistan
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1/2/2002 – 12/31/2015
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) survey data; administrative records data; census/enumeration data; observational data


Data Source:  View help for Data Source SIGACTS: Shaver, Andrew, and Austin Wright. 2017. "Data on Combatant Activity during Afghanistan War Advance Scientific Investigation of Insurgency." ANQAR: Luke N Condra, Austin L Wright, Civilians, Control, and Collaboration during Civil Conflict, International Studies Quarterly, Volume 63, Issue 4, December 2019, Pages 897-907, Additional souces: See Data Appendix.
Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation District/hour, road-level event,

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