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01-Dataset-Creation.do text/x-stata-syntax 11.8 KB 07/25/2018 11:52:AM
02-Analysis.do 6.5 KB 07/25/2018 12:02:PM
ElwertPfeffer2018.pdf application/pdf 835.1 KB 07/25/2018 12:45:PM
README.txt text/plain 563 bytes 07/25/2018 12:03:PM

Project Citation: 

Elwert, Felix, and Pfeffer, Fabian. The Future Strikes Back. Using Future Treatments to Detect and Reduce Hidden Bias. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2018-07-25. https://doi.org/10.3886/E104060V1

Persistent URL:  http://doi.org/10.3886/E104060V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Conventional advice discourages controlling for post-outcome variables in regression analysis. Here, we show that controlling for commonly available post-outcome (i.e. future) values of the treatment variable can help detect, reduce, and even remove omitted variable bias (unobserved confounding). The premise is that the same unobserved confounders that affect treatment also affect future values of the treatment. Future treatments thus proxy for the unmeasured confounder, and researchers can exploit these proxy measures productively. We establish several new results: Regarding a commonly assumed data-generating process involving future treatments, we (1) introduce a simple new approach to reduce bias and show that it strictly reduces bias; (2) elaborate on existing approaches and show that they can increase bias; (3) assess the relative merits of approaches; (4) analyze true state dependence and selection as key challenges; and (5) demonstrate that future treatments can test for hidden bias, even when they fail to reduce bias. We illustrate these results empirically with an analysis of the effect of parental income on children’s educational attainment.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms PSID
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United States
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1968 – 1992


Published Versions

V1 [2018-07-25]

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