Data and Code for: The Price of War

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Jonathan Federle, Kiel Institute for the World Economy; André Meier, Tudor Capital Europe LLP; Gernot J. Müller, University of Tübingen; Willi Mutschler, University of Tübingen; Moritz Schularick, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Version:  View help for Version V1

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  LICENSES 09/30/2025 10:31:AM
  data 09/30/2025 10:31:AM
  ressources 11/24/2025 02:27:PM
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LICENSE.txt text/plain 5.3 KB 09/30/2025 06:31:AM
README.md text/x-web-markdown 60.3 KB 11/24/2025 04:10:AM
README.pdf application/pdf 154.7 KB 11/24/2025 06:25:AM
main.do text/plain 24.2 KB 11/24/2025 09:26:AM
setup.do text/plain 4.4 KB 09/30/2025 06:31:AM

Project Citation: 

Federle, Jonathan, Meier, André, Müller, Gernot J., Mutschler, Willi, and Schularick, Moritz. Data and Code for: The Price of War. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2026. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2026-01-21. https://doi.org/10.3886/E238484V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary We assemble a new data set spanning 150 years and 60 countries to study the economic toll of war. A war of average intensity is associated with an output drop of close to 10 percent in the war-site economy, while consumer prices rise by approximately 20 percent. The capital stock, total factor productivity, and equity returns all decline sharply. The economic ramifications of war are not confined to the war site. The evidence points to adverse economic outcomes in other belligerent and third-party countries if they are exposed to the war site through trade linkages or share a common border.

This repository replicates all figures, tables and numbers both in the paper as well as online appendix.
Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources Deutsche Forschungsgesellschaft (DFG) (411754673)

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms civil wars; interstate wars; business cycles; spillovers; trade exposure; supply shocks; wars; international transmission
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E30 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
      F40 Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General
      F50 International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy: General
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage World
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1870 – 2024
Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 1870 – 2024
Universe:  View help for Universe Countries
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data; event/transaction data; geographic information system (GIS) data; observational data; program source code

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source
  • Geopolitical Risk Index
  • CEPII Gravity
  • CEPII TradHist
  • Correlates of War Direct Contiguity
  • Correlates of War Intra-State War
  • Correlates of War Inter-State War
  • Correlates of War Extra-State War
  • Correlates of War National Material Capabilities
  • Correlates of War Territorial Change
  • Global Macro Database
  • Human Mortality Database
  • IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
  • Long-Term Productivity Database 
  • Macro History Database
  • Maddison Project Database
  • Measuring Worth Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate
  • Our World In Data
  • Populist leaders and the economy
  • UCDP Battle-Related Deaths Dataset
  • UCDP Dyadic Dataset
  • UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset
  • UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset
  • Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)
  • World Bank World Development Indicators
Collection Mode(s):  View help for Collection Mode(s) other
Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation Years, Countries

Related Publications

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Published Versions

V1 [2026-01-21]

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DDI 2.5

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