Beyond Probabilities a Test of Fuzzy Trace Theory for Weather Communication

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Shadya Davis, University of South Carolina

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
Beyond-Probabilities-Test-of-FTT-Dataset-from-SPSS-to-ASCII.dat text/plain 8.7 MB 07/05/2025 12:33:PM
Beyond-Probabilities-Test-of-FTT-Survey-Instrument.md text/x-web-markdown 24.9 KB 07/05/2025 12:34:PM
README-Beyond-Probabilities-Test-of-FTT.md text/x-web-markdown 5.5 KB 07/05/2025 12:41:PM

Project Citation: 

Davis, Shadya. Beyond Probabilities a Test of Fuzzy Trace Theory for Weather Communication. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-07-05. https://doi.org/10.3886/E235242V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary This study tested whether adding plain-language explanations to weather forecasts helps people make better decisions than providing only traditional warnings or numerical probabilities alone. We found that most people preferred forecasts that combined probability numbers with explanations of what those numbers mean in practical terms. These enhanced messages also encouraged more people to take protective actions in certain situations. These findings suggest that weather forecasts can better serve the public by providing both precise probability information and clear explanations of its significance, potentially saving lives. Future research should test these approaches during additional weather emergencies and in real-time.
Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA22SEC4810015)

Scope of Project

Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 11/1/2020 – 12/1/2020 (Fall 2020)
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) survey data
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes Data were collected through a web-based survey distributed by Centiment. The survey took on average 16 minutes to complete. Of the initial 321 responses, 237 completed surveys were included in the final analysis.


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V1 [2025-07-05]

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