Regional Heterogeneity in Debt-Governance Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of East, South and West Africa's Sustainable Development Pathways

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) David Samuel, Trinity University, Lagos

Version:  View help for Version V1

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Data on heterogeneity of debt and institutional quality and sustainable developmenet.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 391.6 KB 07/03/2025 03:14:AM

Project Citation: 

Samuel, David. Regional Heterogeneity in Debt-Governance Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of East, South and West Africa’s Sustainable Development Pathways. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-07-03. https://doi.org/10.3886/E235102V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary This study examines the individual and joint effects of public debt and institutional quality on sustainable development across Sub-Saharan Africa, disaggregating the analysis into East, West, and Southern Africa. Employing panel system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations from 1996–2023, the research incorporates regional interaction terms and control variables such as inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and investment indicators. Results reveal that while public debt can promote development under favourable institutional conditions, its effectiveness varies significantly across regions. Strong institutions amplify debt’s developmental benefits, particularly in East and West Africa, whereas weak governance in Southern Africa diminishes these gains. Interaction models demonstrate that institutional quality mediates and conditions debt outcomes, while robustness checks using panel ARDL ECM models confirm cointegrating relationships and the long-run relevance of institutional capacity. The study underscores the importance of region-specific governance reforms in enhancing the productivity of public debt and achieving sustainable development.
Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources Not applicable

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Economics
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage Sub-Saharan Africa
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1996 – 2023
Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 6/10/2025 – 6/30/2025
Universe:  View help for Universe Sub-Saharan Africa
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes None

Methodology

Sampling:  View help for Sampling 40 countries
Data Source:  View help for Data Source World Development Indicators and World Governance Indicators
Sustainable Development Index and Institutional quality index constructed by author
Weights:  View help for Weights in the computation of SDI, the weight of 0.3 was attached to each of the variables, and for the weight of 0.2 was attached to the institutional quality variables.
Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation 1120

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V1 [2025-07-03]

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