ECIN Replication Package for "Supply Disruptions, Economic Slack, and the State-Dependent Phillips Curve"
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) U. Devrim Demirel, U.S. Congressional Budget Office; Matthew Wilson, U.S. Congressional Budget Office
Version: View help for Version V1
| Name | File Type | Size | Last Modified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Replication Materials | 06/27/2025 05:45:PM | ||
|
|
application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document | 54.6 KB | 06/27/2025 01:44:PM |
Project Citation:
Demirel, U. Devrim, and Wilson, Matthew. ECIN Replication Package for “Supply Disruptions, Economic Slack, and the State-Dependent Phillips Curve.” Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-06-27. https://doi.org/10.3886/E234607V1
Project Description
Summary:
View help for Summary
This project includes codes and data to replicate "Supply Disruptions, Economic Slack, and the State-Dependent Phillips Curve."
Abstract:
This paper investigates how supply disruptions and economic slack affect the responsiveness of inflation to changes in aggregate demand. We propose and estimate a nonlinear Phillips curve, whereby the sensitivity of inflation to changes in demand varies with supply conditions and the amount of slack in the economy. We find evidence that supply disruptions and low unemployment both steepen the Phillips curve, thereby amplifying the inflationary effects of increased demand. Our results suggest that the effects of fiscal policy on inflation depend on the prevailing supply conditions and the level of unemployment in the economy.
Abstract:
This paper investigates how supply disruptions and economic slack affect the responsiveness of inflation to changes in aggregate demand. We propose and estimate a nonlinear Phillips curve, whereby the sensitivity of inflation to changes in demand varies with supply conditions and the amount of slack in the economy. We find evidence that supply disruptions and low unemployment both steepen the Phillips curve, thereby amplifying the inflationary effects of increased demand. Our results suggest that the effects of fiscal policy on inflation depend on the prevailing supply conditions and the level of unemployment in the economy.
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
View help for Subject Terms
Phillips curve;
Supply disruptions;
Economic slack
JEL Classification:
View help for JEL Classification
E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 Fiscal Policy
E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 Fiscal Policy
Manuscript Number:
View help for Manuscript Number
ECIN-Aug-2023-0350
Geographic Coverage:
View help for Geographic Coverage
U.S. National,
U.S. Regions,
U.S. States
Time Period(s):
View help for Time Period(s)
1994 – 2023
Collection Date(s):
View help for Collection Date(s)
2022 – 2023
Universe:
View help for Universe
Data reflects aggregate data for the U.S., for U.S. regions, and for U.S. states.
Data Type(s):
View help for Data Type(s)
aggregate data;
census/enumeration data
Related Publications
Published Versions
Report a Problem
Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.
This material is distributed exactly as it arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.