Replication data for: Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Gauti B. Eggertsson; Manuel Lancastre; Lawrence H. Summers

Version: View help for Version V1

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Project Citation:

Eggertsson, Gauti B., Lancastre, Manuel, and Summers, Lawrence H. Replication data for: Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2019. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-05-30. https://doi.org/10.3886/E231432V1

Project Description

Summary: This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler et al. (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between population aging and per capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited by a lower bound on nominal rates, as during the Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the "secular stagnation regime" of 2008–2015 that prevailed in a number of countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      E23 Macroeconomics: Production
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      E43 Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
      G01 Financial Crises
      I31 General Welfare; Well-Being
      J14 Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-labor Market Discrimination

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Published Versions

V1 [2025-05-30]

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