Data and Codes for: "Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Labor Market: State-Level Evidence"

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Celine Poilly, Aix-Marseille School of Economics; Tripier Fabien, Université Paris Dauphine

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  5_replication 05/21/2025 12:08:PM

Project Citation: 

Poilly, Celine, and Fabien, Tripier. Data and Codes for: “Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Labor Market: State-Level Evidence.” Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-05-22. https://doi.org/10.3886/E230241V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary This short paper provides U.S. state-level evidence regarding the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the labor market. We show that a higher exposure to trade policy uncertainty generates a contraction in total hours worked at the state level. The extensive margins of labor is the primary margin of employment adjustment. State-level employment is more strongly impacted by trade policy uncertainty in goods-producing industries, and more particularly in the durable goods industry. States which are more specialized in goods industries, when they face higher uncertainty, tends to postpone hiring by more, which explains the drop in total employment.
Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources French National Research Agency (ANR-17-EURE-0020); French National Research Agency (ANR-20-CE26-DEMUR); Institut Universitaire de France

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Uncertainty Shocks; Tariffs; Labor Market
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      E52 Monetary Policy
      F41 Open Economy Macroeconomics
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United states
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1/1/2008 – 12/31/2020
Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 9/1/2024 – 1/31/2025
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) administrative records data; aggregate data
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes All data sources of the data are in the README, in the replication file

Methodology

Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation Year and quarter
Geographic Unit:  View help for Geographic Unit States within US

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Published Versions

V1 [2025-05-22]

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