Data and Code for: Economic Sanctions and Intermediated Trade

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Maxim Chupilkin, EBRD and University of Oxford; Beata Javorcik, University of Oxford, EBRD, and CEPR; Aleksandra Peeva, Humboldt University of Berlin; Alexander Plekhanov, EBRD

Version: View help for Version V1

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Project Citation:

Chupilkin, Maxim, Javorcik, Beata, Peeva, Aleksandra, and Plekhanov, Alexander. Data and Code for: Economic Sanctions and Intermediated Trade. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-05-20. https://doi.org/10.3886/E229004V1

Project Description

Summary: Circumvention undermines the effectiveness of economic sanctions, yet evidence on the precise mechanisms remains limited. This paper documents two strategies deployed to work around trade sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022. These include intermediated trade through Caucasus and Central Asia and a simple, yet little-documented, method whereby goods shipped through the sanctioned economy to the neighbouring economies fail to reach their intended destination. The latter amounted to around half of total "abnormal" exports from the EU/UK to Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. While these strategies offset less than 10% of the sanctions’ impact, substitution ratios exceed 50% for numerous sanctioned products.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Trade; Sanctions

JEL Classification:
      F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
      F15 Economic Integration
      F51 International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

Geographic Coverage: EU, Russia, Central Asia

Time Period(s): 2017 – 2023

Data Type(s): aggregate data; program source code

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Published Versions

V1 [2025-05-20]

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DDI 2.5

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