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Project Citation: 

Caballero, Maria Esther, Ippedico, Giuseppe, and Peri, Giovanni. Data and Code for: Political Polarization and US-Mexico Migration. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-05-13. https://doi.org/10.3886/E226341V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary
We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the “Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad” data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, including undocumented immigrants, across US commuting zones. We find that a 10-percentage point increase in the Republican vote share in a commuting zone reduced inflows by 1.8 percent after the 2016 Trump election. The internal relocation of established Mexican immigrants primarily explains this reduction, though inflows of new immigrants decreased as well.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      F22 International Migration
      J61 Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers


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