Data and Code for: Do inflation expectations become more anchored during a disinflation episode? Evidence for euro area firms

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Ursel Baumann, European Central Bank; Annalisa Ferrando, European Central Bank; Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank; Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California - Berkeley; Timo Reinelt, Federal Reservea Bank of San Francisco

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README.pdf application/pdf 89.5 KB 05/19/2025 01:27:PM
doall.do text/plain 272 bytes 03/24/2025 12:21:PM
load_rreg2.do text/plain 9.9 KB 03/24/2025 12:21:PM
step001_prep_SAFE.do text/plain 1.1 KB 03/24/2025 12:21:PM
step002_term_structure.do text/vnd.graphviz 8 KB 03/24/2025 12:21:PM
step003_firm_het.do text/vnd.graphviz 3.8 KB 03/24/2025 12:21:PM
step004_country_het.do text/vnd.graphviz 3.6 KB 03/24/2025 12:21:PM

Project Citation: 

Baumann, Ursel , Ferrando, Annalisa, Georgarakos, Dimitris, Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, and Reinelt, Timo. Data and Code for: Do inflation expectations become more anchored during a disinflation episode? Evidence for euro area firms. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-05-20. https://doi.org/10.3886/E224103V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Does a successful disinflation contribute to the anchoring of inflation expectations? We provide novel survey evidence on the dynamics of euro area firms’ inflation expectations during the disinflation episode since 2022. We show that firms’ short- term inflation expectations declined steadily towards the inflation target as the disinflation progressed. However, we also document a thick tail in longer-term inflation expectations, substantial disagreement about the inflation outlook, and an increased sensitivity of longer-term inflation expectations to short-term inflation expectations. These findings suggest that it may take more time to bring inflation expectations fully in line with central bank objectives.

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Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms inflation expectations; firms; surveys; anchoring
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
      E52 Monetary Policy
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage Greece, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Finland, Italy, Slovakia, France, Portugal, Germany, Spain
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 6/2023 – 9/2024
Universe:  View help for Universe Sample of firms in the euro area
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data; program source code; survey data

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source European Central Bank
Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation Firm
Geographic Unit:  View help for Geographic Unit Country

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Published Versions

V1 [2025-05-20]

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