Data and Code for: Decisions Under Risk Are Decisions Under Complexity
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Ryan Oprea, University of California-Santa Barbara
Version: View help for Version V2
| Name | File Type | Size | Last Modified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Replication | 02/19/2025 03:55:PM |
Project Citation:
Oprea, Ryan. Data and Code for: Decisions Under Risk Are Decisions Under Complexity. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-02-20. https://doi.org/10.3886/E208268V2
Project Description
Summary:
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We provide evidence that classic lottery anomalies like probability weighting and loss aversion are not special phenomena of risk. They also arise (and often with equal strength) when subjects evaluate deterministic, positive monetary payments that have been disaggregated to resemble lotteries. Thus, we find, e.g., apparent probability weighting in settings without probabilities and loss aversion in settings without scope for loss. Across subjects, anomalies in these deterministic tasks strongly predicts the same anomalies in lotteries. These findings suggest that much of the behavior motivating our most important behavioral theories of risk derive from complexity-driven mistakes rather than true risk preferences.
Funding Sources:
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National Science Foundation (SES-1949366)
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
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Complexity;
fourfold pattern;
loss aversion;
probability weighting;
prospect theory;
risk;
bounded rationality;
economics experiments
JEL Classification:
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C91 Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual
D91 Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
C91 Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual
D91 Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
Geographic Coverage:
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United States
Time Period(s):
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2/1/2021 – 5/1/2023
Collection Date(s):
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2/2021 – 3/2021 (Student treatment collected with UCSB students);
5/2022 – 5/2022 (4 Box treatment collected on Prolific);
4/2023 – 4/2023 (Main data collection and BDM treatment collected on Prolific)
Data Type(s):
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experimental data
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