Data and Code for : THE SLANTED-L PHILLIPS CURVE

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Pierpaolo Benigno, University of Bern; Gauti B. Eggertsson, Brown University

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  Code 12/04/2024 10:18:AM
  Data 12/04/2024 10:18:AM
  Figure 12/04/2024 10:18:AM
ReadMe.pdf application/pdf 46 KB 02/18/2024 03:05:AM
ReadMe.tex text/x-matlab 7 KB 12/04/2024 05:18:AM

Project Citation: 

Benigno, Pierpaolo, and Eggertsson, Gauti B. Data and Code for¿: THE SLANTED-L PHILLIPS CURVE. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2024. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2024-12-10. https://doi.org/10.3886/E199662V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary A slanted-L curve is well-suited to represent the non-linearity of the celebrated Phillips curve. We show this using cross-country data of major industrialized economies since 2009, including the inflationary surge of the 2020s. At high unemployment rates, an increase in demand reduces unemployment without creating strong inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, supply shocks have a muted effect. At sufficiently low unemployment, there is a labor shortage, so that the economy is at full capacity. Then, higher demand is inflationary, and supply shocks are amplified. We derive a model of a slanted-L curve.
Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources Ministero dell'Universita Ricerca Scientifica e Tecnologia (Italy) (I83C22000360008)

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United States, Europe, Japan, Australia
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 3/2009 – 6/2023
Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 12/2023 – 1/2024
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source
    Figure 1: Data are from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average, Index 1982-1984=100, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The variable v/u is computed as the ratio between the job openings and the unemployment level. Data are monthly. Accordingly, the quarterly series is the average of the relevant monthly observations. Job openings are from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings: Total Nonfarm [JTSJOL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Unemployment level is from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Level [UNEMPLOY], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    
    Figure 2 and 3: Unemployment Rate: Harmonized Unemployment, Monthly Rates, Total, All Persons, obtained for each country (Australia, Canada, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, United States) from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Inflation Rate: Annual percentage change in the Core CPI, corresponding to the series 'core CPI (starndardized) SADJ,' retrieved for each country from Thomson Reuters Datastream, respectively given by AUCCOR..E, CNCCOR..E, BDCCOR..E, UKCCOR..E, FRCCOR..E, ITCCOR..E, JPCCOR..E, USCCOR..E.
Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation year and quarters

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V1 [2024-12-10]

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