Code and Data for "The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending" by J. Antolin-Diaz and P. Surico
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Juan Antolin-Diaz, London Business School; Paolo Surico, London Business School
Version: View help for Version V1
| Name | File Type | Size | Last Modified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Replication | 04/30/2025 10:37:AM |
Project Citation:
Antolin-Diaz, Juan, and Surico, Paolo. Code and Data for “The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending” by J. Antolin-Diaz and P. Surico. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-06-06. https://doi.org/10.3886/E198830V1
Project Description
Summary:
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Military spending has large and persistent effects on aggregate output because it shifts the composition of public spending towards R&D. This boosts innovation and private investment in the medium-term, and increases productivity, GDP and consumption at longer horizons. Public R&D expenditure stimulates economic activities beyond the business-cycle even when it is not associated with war spending. In contrast, the effects of public investment are shorter-lived while public consumption has a modest impact at most horizons. We reach these conclusions using Bayesian Vector Auto Regressions (BVAR) with long lags and 125 years of U.S. quarterly data, including newly reconstructed time series of government spending broken down by its main categories since 1890.
Funding Sources:
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ESRC (ES/Y002490/1)
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
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macroeconomics;
innovation;
government spending;
R&D;
output multiplier
JEL Classification:
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E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E62 Fiscal Policy
O40 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E62 Fiscal Policy
O40 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
Geographic Coverage:
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United States
Time Period(s):
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1/1/1890 – 12/31/2015
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