From boom to bust: real commodity prices from 1850
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) David S. Jacks, National University of Singapore
Version: View help for Version V1
Version Title: View help for Version Title 2023
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application/pdf | 492.8 KB | 02/15/2024 05:45:PM |
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Project Citation:
Jacks, David S. From boom to bust: real commodity prices from 1850. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2024-02-15. https://doi.org/10.3886/E198401V1
Project Description
Summary:
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This is the annual update of Jacks, D.S. (2019), “From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run.” Cliometrica 13(2), 201-220. It analyses an accompanying dataset on 42 commodities, comprising 7.43 trillion USD worth of production in 2019 and spanning the years from 1850 to 2023. It also presents evidence on three commodity price indices using various weighting schemes for the period from 1900 to 2023. Applying weights drawn from the value of production in 1975, real commodity prices are estimated to have increased by 41.13% (or 0.28% per annum) from 1900, 47.42% (or 0.53% per annum) from 1950, and 16.01% (or 0.31% per annum) from 1975. The data also indicates the presence of three complete commodity price cycles, entailing multi-year positive deviations from the long-run trend. The most recently completed cycle began in 1996, reached its peak in 2010, and is now near its trough.
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
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Commodities;
Commodity prices;
Natural resources;
Natural resource prices
Geographic Coverage:
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Global
Time Period(s):
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1850 – 2023
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