Data and Code for: Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Nicolas Bottan, Cornell University; Ricardo Perez-Truglia, UC Berkeley
Version: View help for Version V1
| Name | File Type | Size | Last Modified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data | 01/03/2024 02:35:PM | ||
| Survey-instruments | 03/13/2024 04:50:PM | ||
| dofiles | 12/19/2024 10:10:AM | ||
| results | 03/27/2024 03:01:PM | ||
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application/pdf | 170.6 KB | 12/19/2024 10:14:AM |
Project Citation:
Bottan, Nicolas, and Perez-Truglia, Ricardo. Data and Code for: Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2024. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2024-12-20. https://doi.org/10.3886/E196421V1
Project Description
Summary:
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Home price expectations play a central role in macroeconomics and finance. However, there is little direct evidence on how these expectations affect market choices. We provide the first causal evidence based on a large-scale, high-stakes, and naturally occurring field experiment in the United States. We mailed letters with information on trends in home prices to 57,910 homeowners who had listed their homes on the market. Collectively, these homes were worth $34 billion. We randomized the information contained in the mailing to create non-deceptive, exogenous variation in the subjects home price expectations. We then used rich administrative data to measure the effects of these information shocks on the subjects' market choices. We found that, consistent with economic theory, higher home price expectations caused a reduction in the probability of selling the home. These effects were highly statistically significant, economically large in magnitude, and robust to a number of sharp checks. Our results indicated that market choices were highly elastic to expectations: a 1 percentage point increase in home price expectations caused a 2.63 percentage point reduction in the probability of selling the property within 12 weeks.
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
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expectations;
experiment;
housing market;
information
JEL Classification:
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C81 Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
C93 Field Experiments
D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
D84 Expectations; Speculations
R31 Housing Supply and Markets
C81 Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
C93 Field Experiments
D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
D84 Expectations; Speculations
R31 Housing Supply and Markets
Geographic Coverage:
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United States of America
Time Period(s):
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5/2019 – 12/2019
Collection Date(s):
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6/4/2019 – 1/7/2020
Data Type(s):
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administrative records data;
aggregate data;
census/enumeration data;
event/transaction data;
experimental data;
observational data;
survey data
Methodology
Unit(s) of Observation:
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Individual
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