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Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Ignacio Esponda, UC Santa Barbara; Emanuel Vespa, UC San Diego
Version: View help for Version V1
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text/plain | 12.7 KB | 09/06/2023 08:58:AM |
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Project Citation:
Esponda, Ignacio, and Vespa, Emanuel. Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-09-06. https://doi.org/10.3886/E193663V1
Project Description
Summary:
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We present an experimental framework to study the extent to which failures of contingent thinking explain classic anomalies in a broad class of environments, including overbidding in auctions and the Ellsberg paradox. We study environments in which the subject’s choices affect payoffs only in some states, but not in others. We find that anomalies are in large part driven by incongruences between choices in the standard presentation of each problem and a `contingent' presentation, which focuses the subject on the set of states where her actions matter. Additional evidence suggests that this phenomenon is in large part driven by people's failure to put themselves in states that have not yet happened even though they are made aware that their actions only matter in those states.
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
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Experimental Economics;
Laboratory;
Decision Problems
Geographic Coverage:
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Santa Barbara, CA
Time Period(s):
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11/6/2015 – 3/23/2023
Universe:
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UC Santa Barbara and UC San Diego Undergraduates who have signed up to participate in paid laboratory experiments in economics.
Data Type(s):
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experimental data
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