Data and Code for: Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Pablo Guerron-Quintana, Boston College; Tomohiro Hirano, Royal Holloway, University of London; Ryo Jinnai, Hitotsubashi University
Version: View help for Version V1
| Name | File Type | Size | Last Modified |
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| Data | 10/24/2022 02:52:AM | ||
| Figure1 | 06/22/2022 09:03:PM | ||
| Figure5 | 10/19/2022 03:34:AM | ||
| Figure7 | 06/22/2022 09:08:PM | ||
| Figure_A4 | 10/18/2022 02:39:AM | ||
| Figure_A5 | 10/18/2022 02:47:AM | ||
| Figure_A6 | 10/18/2022 02:49:AM | ||
| Figures_2_3_4 | 10/18/2022 03:10:AM | ||
| Figures_A1_A2_A3 | 11/02/2022 07:00:AM | ||
| Section6 | 10/18/2022 03:25:AM |
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Project Citation:
Guerron-Quintana, Pablo, Hirano, Tomohiro, and Jinnai, Ryo. Data and Code for: Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2023. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-03-27. https://doi.org/10.3886/E173441V1
Project Description
Summary:
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We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endogenous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd in investment and stimulate economic growth, but expectation about future bubbles crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. We identify bubbly episodes by estimating the model using the U.S. data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the IT and housing bubbles not only caused economic booms but also lifted U.S. GDP by almost 2 percentage points permanently, but the economy could have grown even faster if people had believed that asset bubbles would never arise.
Scope of Project
JEL Classification:
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E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 Financial Crises
O40 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 Financial Crises
O40 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
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