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Project Citation: 

Horn, Sebastian, Reinhart, Carmen M., and Trebesch, Christoph. Data and Code for: Hidden Defaults by Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2022. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-04-07. https://doi.org/10.3886/E162501V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary China’s lending boom to developing countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given the secrecy surrounding China’s loans, also the associated defaults remain “hidden”, as missed payments and restructuring details are not disclosed. This paper constructs an encompassing dataset of sovereign debt restructurings with Chinese lenders and finds that these credit events are surprisingly frequent, exceeding the number of sovereign bond or Paris Club restructurings. Chinese lenders follow a resolution approach reminiscent of 1980s Western lenders; they seldom provide deep debt relief with face value reduction. If history is any guide, multi-year debt workouts with serial restructurings lie in store.


Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Debt; Default; restructuring; China
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      F21 International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements
      F34 International Lending and Debt Problems
      F42 International Policy Coordination and Transmission
      G15 International Financial Markets
      H63 National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt


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