Data and Code for: Why is the Birth Rate Falling in the United States

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Melissa S. Kearney, University of Maryland; Phillip Levine, Wellesley College; Luke Pardue, University of Maryland

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
data			09/15/2021 02:20:PM
output			09/15/2021 02:22:PM
programs			09/15/2021 02:22:PM
0_setup.do	text/plain	599 bytes	02/07/2022 06:03:AM
LICENSES.pdf	application/pdf	326.9 KB	02/05/2022 10:00:AM
README.docx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document	48.4 KB	02/07/2022 05:43:AM
README.pdf	application/pdf	253.3 KB	02/07/2022 05:57:AM
README.txt	text/plain	3.3 KB	02/07/2022 05:58:AM

Project Citation:

Kearney, Melissa S., Levine, Phillip, and Pardue, Luke. Data and Code for: Why is the Birth Rate Falling in the United States. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2022. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2022-02-07. https://doi.org/10.3886/E144981V1

Project Description

Summary: This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations for it. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects both very large declines within certain groups of women, including teens and Hispanic women – and smaller declines among demographic groups that comprise a large population share, including college-educated white women. We explore potential economic, policy, and social factors that might be responsible for the overall decline. We conclude from our empirical examination of possible factors that there is not a readily identifiable economic or policy factor or set of factors this is likely responsible for a substantial share of the decline. Instead, the patterns observed suggest that widespread, hard to quantify changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and the nature of parenting are more likely behind the recent decline in US births. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J18 Demographic Economics: Public Policy

Geographic Coverage: United States

Time Period(s): 1980 – 2020 (Annual Data, 1980-2020)

Collection Date(s): 2020 – 2021

Universe: The universe of recorded births in the United States from 1980-2020 (main analysis focuses on the period from 2007-2020), among women 15-44 and within selected age and race or ethnicity groups.

Data Type(s): aggregate data; census/enumeration data

Methodology

Data Source: Data Sources: CDC WONDER Natality Database, CDC SEER Population Estimates, Current Population Survey (CPS) Merged Outgoing Rotation Groups, CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement, American Community Survey, Behavioral Risk and Surveillance Survey, New York Federal Reserve Bank/EQUIFAX, Pew Research Center,

Geographic Unit: United States, and by State

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Published Versions

V1 [2022-02-07]

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