Data and Code for: Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Michael Geruso, University of Texas-Austin; Dean Spears, University of Texas-Austin; Ishaana Talesara, University of Texas-Austin

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  do_files 03/16/2021 01:38:PM
  figures 12/28/2020 10:03:AM
  source_data 01/06/2021 01:23:PM
  tables 12/28/2020 10:03:AM
  working_data 12/28/2020 09:43:AM
LICENSE.txt text/plain 516 bytes 01/06/2021 08:19:AM
README.pdf application/pdf 691.6 KB 03/16/2021 09:35:AM
log_InTextCalculations.smcl text/plain 32.4 KB 12/24/2020 12:46:PM
log_make_appendix.smcl text/plain 1.7 MB 01/06/2021 09:58:AM
log_make_figures.smcl text/plain 262 KB 12/24/2020 12:46:PM

Project Citation: 

Geruso, Michael, Spears, Dean, and Talesara, Ishaana. Data and Code for: Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2021. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2021-12-17. https://doi.org/10.3886/E123381V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Inversions---in which the popular vote winner loses the election---have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within one point (one-eighth of presidential elections), about 40% will be inversions in expectation. We show this conditional probability is remarkably stable across historical periods---despite differences in which groups voted, which states existed, and which parties participated. Our findings imply that the US has experienced so few inversions merely because there have been so few elections (and fewer close elections).


Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Electoral College; U.S. Presidential elections; economic demography
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
      J10 Demographic Economics: General
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United States
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1836 – 2016 (U.S. Presidential elections 1836-2016)
Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 11/2016 – 10/2020
Universe:  View help for Universe U.S. Presidential elections (historical and simulated)
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) administrative records data; census/enumeration data; program source code; survey data

Methodology

Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation state-year (eg. Texas in 2012)
Geographic Unit:  View help for Geographic Unit U.S. states

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Published Versions

V1 [2021-12-17]

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