Project Description
Summary:
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This paper uses new confidential Census data to revisit the relationship between firm size, cyclicality, and financial frictions. First, we find that large firms (the top 1% by size) are less cyclically sensitive than the rest. Second, high and rising concentration implies that the higher cyclicality of the bottom 99% of firms only has a modest impact on aggregate fluctuations. Third, differences in cyclicality are not simply explained by financing, and in fact appear largely unrelated to proxies for financial strength. We instead provide evidence for an alternative mechanism based on the industry scope of the very largest firms.
Scope of Project
JEL Classification:
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E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G31 Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies; Capacity
Universe:
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US manufacturing firms with more than $250k in assets, 1977-2014; US retail and trade firms with more than $50m in assets, 1977-2014.
Methodology
Sampling:
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The QFR target population consists of all corporations engaged primarily in manufacturing with
total assets of $250,000 and over, and all corporations engaged primarily in mining; wholesale trade; retail trade;
information; or professional and technical services (except legal services) industries with total assets of $50 million
and over. More information on sampling frame and sampling methodology are available at
https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/collection.html
Data Source:
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The QFR sampling frame is developed from a file received annually from the IRS. This file contains select information for corporations required to file Form 1120, 1120A, or 1120S. Once this file is received, the QFR examines the information and assigns an initial NAICS industry code to each corporation. Then this file is stratified based on the NAICS code, size of total assets and size of receipts. More information on sampling frame and sampling methodology are available at
https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/collection.html
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