Data and Code for: The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Henrique S. Basso, Banco de España; Omar Rachedi, Universitat Ramon Llull, ESADE Business School

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
Appendix			06/15/2020 10:09:AM
Data			06/15/2020 10:10:AM
MainText			06/15/2020 10:10:AM
Model			06/15/2020 10:11:AM
Readme.pdf	application/pdf	57.2 KB	06/15/2020 06:08:AM
Readme.tex	application/x-tex	2.8 KB	06/15/2020 06:08:AM
Readme.txt	text/plain	2.9 KB	06/15/2020 06:08:AM
RunDataAppendix.do	text/x-stata-syntax	7.9 KB	07/16/2020 11:37:PM
RunDataMainText.do	text/x-stata-syntax	2.8 KB	07/20/2020 03:01:AM
RunModel.m	text/x-matlab	1.6 KB	06/15/2020 06:08:AM

Project Description

Summary: We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across U.S. states, we show that the local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 and increases with the population share of young people, implying multipliers of 1.1-1.9 in the inter-quartile range. A parsimonious life-cycle open-economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and age-specific differences in labor supply and demand explains 87% of the relationship between local multipliers and demographics. The model implies that the U.S. population aging between 1980 and 2015 caused a 38% drop in national government spending multipliers.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers; Population Aging; Government Consumption Spending; Life-cycle

JEL Classification:
      E30 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
      E62 Fiscal Policy
      J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

Geographic Coverage: US, US States

Universe: Mostly US population / US States

Data Type(s): aggregate data; census/enumeration data; program source code; survey data

Collection Notes: Birth Rates collected from digitalized Vital Statistics of the United States Volumes.

Methodology

Data Source:

Nakamura, Emi, and J. Steinsson. 2014. Replication data for: Fiscal Stimulus in a Mon-

etary Union: Evidence from US Regions."

National Center for Health Statistics 1930-1995. Vital Statistics of the United States."

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (1967-2015)
U.S. Office of Management and Budget (2007-2015)
IPUMS Current Population Survey (CPS) (1997-2015)

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 1970-2015

U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1969-2015
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 1967-2015
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1967-2015
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency. 1975-2015

Unit(s) of Observation: US States

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Published Versions

V1 [2021-09-23]

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