Data and Code for: The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Henrique S. Basso, Banco de España; Omar Rachedi, Universitat Ramon Llull, ESADE Business School

Version: View help for Version V1

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Project Citation:

Basso, Henrique S., and Rachedi, Omar. Data and Code for: The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2021. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2021-09-23. https://doi.org/10.3886/E118725V1

Project Description

Summary: We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across U.S. states, we show that the local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 and increases with the population share of young people, implying multipliers of 1.1-1.9 in the inter-quartile range. A parsimonious life-cycle open-economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and age-specific differences in labor supply and demand explains 87% of the relationship between local multipliers and demographics. The model implies that the U.S. population aging between 1980 and 2015 caused a 38% drop in national government spending multipliers.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers; Population Aging; Government Consumption Spending; Life-cycle

JEL Classification:
      E30 Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
      E62 Fiscal Policy
      J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

Geographic Coverage: US, US States

Time Period(s): 1/1/1967 – 12/31/2015 (Yearly data from 1967'2015)

Collection Date(s): 5/2017 – 5/2017

Universe: Mostly US population / US States

Data Type(s): aggregate data; census/enumeration data; program source code; survey data

Collection Notes: Birth Rates collected from digitalized Vital Statistics of the United States Volumes.

Methodology

Data Source:

Nakamura, Emi, and J. Steinsson. 2014. Replication data for: Fiscal Stimulus in a Mon-

etary Union: Evidence from US Regions."

National Center for Health Statistics 1930-1995. Vital Statistics of the United States."

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (1967-2015)
U.S. Office of Management and Budget (2007-2015)
IPUMS Current Population Survey (CPS) (1997-2015)

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 1970-2015

U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1969-2015
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 1967-2015
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1967-2015
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency. 1975-2015

Unit(s) of Observation: US States

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Published Versions

V1 [2021-09-23]

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