Replication data for: The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Christopher R. Knittel; Robert S. Pindyck

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  AEJMacro_2014_0033_Data_and_Code 10/12/2019 07:32:PM
LICENSE.txt text/plain 14.6 KB 10/12/2019 03:32:PM

Project Citation: 

Knittel, Christopher R., and Pindyck, Robert S. Replication data for: The Simple Economics of Commodity Price Speculation. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2016. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E114087V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary The price of crude oil never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid-2004. By July 2008 it peaked at $145 and by late 2008 it fell to $30 before increasing to $110 in 2011. Are speculators partly to blame for these price changes? Using a simple model of supply and demand in the cash and storage markets, we determine whether speculation is consistent with data on production, inventory changes, and convenience yields. We focus on crude oil, but our approach can be applied to other commodities. We show speculation had little, if any, effect on oil prices. (JEL G13, G18, G23, G31, Q35, Q38)

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      G13 Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing; option pricing
      G18 General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation
      G23 Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
      G31 Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies; Capacity
      Q35 Hydrocarbon Resources
      Q38 Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy


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V1 [2019-10-12]

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