Replication data for: Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Kathryn M. E. Dominguez; Matthew D. Shapiro

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Project Citation:

Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., and Shapiro, Matthew D. Replication data for: Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different? Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2013. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-11. https://doi.org/10.3886/E112613V1

Project Description

Summary: This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. We construct a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. We then compare forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      C53 Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
      E23 Macroeconomics: Production
      E27 Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      G01 Financial Crises

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Published Versions

V1 [2019-10-11]

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