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Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary How adverse is the impact of fiscal policy uncertainty on economic and financial variables? To answer this question, we construct a novel cross-country database of news-based fiscal policy uncertainty indicators. Importantly, we track fiscal events that attract global attention, which we refer to as “global” fiscal policy uncertainty. We find that heightened fiscal policy uncertainty triggers contractionary effects, lowering industrial production in both advanced and emerging market economies. It also raises sovereign borrowing costs, generates synchronous movements in global financial variables including risk aversion, and strengthens the US dollar, even after accounting for US monetary policy shocks.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms fiscal policy uncertainty; news-based uncertainty; VAR
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E61 Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
      E62 Fiscal Policy
      E65 Studies of Particular Policy Episodes


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