Data and Code for: Monetary Policy and the Labor Market: A Quasi-Experiment in Sweden

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) John Coglianese, Federal Reserve Board; Maria Olsson, BI Norwegian Business School; Christina Patterson, University of Chicago

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
replication			08/15/2025 03:23:PM

Project Citation:

Coglianese, John, Olsson, Maria, and Patterson, Christina. Data and Code for: Monetary Policy and the Labor Market: A Quasi-Experiment in Sweden. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-08-27. https://doi.org/10.3886/E228051V1

Project Description

Summary: We analyze a monetary quasi-experiment in Sweden from 2010--2011, when the Riksbank raised the interest rate substantially. We argue that this increase was beyond what labor market conditions warranted, driven instead by new concerns about financial stability. Using a battery of specifications that rule out domestic or international confounders, we show that this monetary tightening led to a substantial economic contraction, raising unemployment by 1--2 percentage points. Using administrative microdata, we find that sectors with nominal wage rigidity drove much of the response and that the monetary contraction was more regressive than the typical business cycle.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
      E52 Monetary Policy
      E58 Central Banks and Their Policies

Geographic Coverage: Sweden

Data Type(s): administrative records data; aggregate data

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Published Versions

V1 [2025-08-27]

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