Data and Code for: Fiscal Policy and Credit Supply in a Crisis

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Diana Bonfim, Banco de Portugal; Miguel Ferreira, Nova School of Business and Economics; Francisco Queiro, Nova School of Business and Economics; Sujiao Zhao, Banco de Portugal

Version: View help for Version V1

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
Replication_Kit			04/06/2025 01:57:PM

Project Citation:

Bonfim, Diana, Ferreira, Miguel, Queiro, Francisco, and Zhao, Sujiao. Data and Code for: Fiscal Policy and Credit Supply in a Crisis. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2025. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-05-06. https://doi.org/10.3886/E213882V1

Project Description

Summary: We measure how cuts to public procurement propagate through the banking system in a financial crisis. During the European sovereign debt crisis, the Portuguese government cut procurement spending by 4.3% of GDP. We find that this cut saddled banks with non-performing loans from government contractors, which led to a persistent reduction in credit supply to other firms. We estimate a bank-level elasticity of credit supply with respect to procurement demand of 2.5. In a general equilibrium model, our findings point to large effects of fiscal policy on credit supply and output in a crisis.

Funding Sources: Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) (PTDC/EGE-OGE/4714/2021)

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: Credit supply; Financial crises; Fiscal policy; Credit channel; Public procurement; Fiscal multipliers

JEL Classification:
      E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
      E62 Fiscal Policy
      G01 Financial Crises
      G20 Financial Institutions and Services: General

Geographic Coverage: Portugal

Time Period(s): 2010 – 2015

Universe: All banks, firms and corporate loans in Portugal.

Data Type(s): administrative records data

Collection Notes: This study combines publicly available data with restricted-use administrative data from Banco de Portugal. Due to security considerations, access to the restricted-use data is confined to the infrastructure of Banco de Portugal’s Microdata Research Laboratory (BPLIM) and is available either on-site or through remote access, as detailed [here]. The data cannot be transferred to or stored on computers outside Banco de Portugal. Researchers interested in accessing the datasets used in this paper must submit a written application for approval by BPLIM, following the procedures outlined [here]. Upon approval, researchers will be granted access to a dedicated data repository hosted on BPLIM’s scalable computational platform, which includes all anonymized datasets — both public and restricted-use — utilized in this study.

Methodology

Unit(s) of Observation: Loan

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Published Versions

V1 [2025-05-06]

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