Data and Code for: The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Gadi Barlevy, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; R. Jason Faberman, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Bart Hobijn, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Aysegul Sahin, University of Texas-Austin

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  odg 02/11/2024 06:29:PM
  pdf 02/11/2024 06:29:PM
  png 02/11/2024 06:31:PM
  svg 02/11/2024 06:31:PM

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Replication files for Journal of Economic Perspectives

Abstract:
We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1959 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. Finally, we argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and job openings to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Beveridge curve; inflation; job openings; unemployment rate
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E52 Monetary Policy
      J20 Demand and Supply of Labor: General
      J63 Labor Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United States (National)
Universe:  View help for Universe Nonfarm business sector of the United States and civilian non-institutionalized population of the United States, 16 years and older.
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes Through APIs of national statistical agency and St. Louis Fed

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source Government statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and historical data on job openings and the unemployment rate from Petrosky-Nadeau and Zhang (2021)
Collection Mode(s):  View help for Collection Mode(s) other

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Published Versions

V1 [2024-04-25]

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