Data and Code for: Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Pablo Cuba-Borda, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Sanjay R. Singh, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and University of California Davis
Version: View help for Version V1
| Name | File Type | Size | Last Modified |
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| Benchmark3v | 04/05/2024 04:38:PM | ||
| SW-LOGLIN | 04/05/2024 04:38:PM | ||
| _estimation | 04/05/2024 05:02:PM | ||
| _figures_tables | 04/05/2024 05:03:PM | ||
| data | 04/05/2024 05:03:PM | ||
| readme | 04/05/2024 05:07:PM | ||
| results | 04/05/2024 05:08:PM | ||
| utils | 04/05/2024 05:08:PM | ||
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application/pdf | 640.7 KB | 04/05/2024 12:38:PM |
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application/zip | 15.1 MB | 04/05/2024 12:38:PM |
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Project Description
Summary:
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We develop a theoretical framework that rationalizes two hypotheses of long-lasting low-interest rate episodes: deflationary-expectations-traps and secular stagnation in a unified setting. These hypotheses differ in the sign of the theoretical correlation between inflation and output growth that they imply. Using the data from Japan over 1998:Q1-2019:Q4, we find that the data favor the expectations-trap hypothesis. The superior model fit of the expectations trap relies on its ability to generate the observed negative correlation between inflation and output growth.
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
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Expectations-driven trap;
secular stagnation;
zero lower bound.
JEL Classification:
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E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 Monetary Policy
E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 Monetary Policy
Geographic Coverage:
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Japan
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