Name File Type Size Last Modified
disasterprobabilities.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 49.8 KB 04/05/2024 11:12:AM

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary
We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the U.S. than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities.  A flight to safety generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output.  Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium and the U.S. holds a levered portfolio of capital financed in dollars.  We quantify the effects of safety shocks and heterogeneity in risk-bearing capacity for global macroeconomic volatility; U.S. external adjustment; and policy transmission, as of dollar swap lines.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms international monetary system; risk premia; convenience yields
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
      F44 International Business Cycles
      G15 International Financial Markets


Related Publications

Published Versions

Export Metadata

Report a Problem

Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.

This material is distributed exactly as it arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.