Data and Code for: "The Political Development Cycle: the Right and the Left in People’s Republic of China from 1953"

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Anton Cheremukhin, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Mikhail Golosov, University of Chicago; Sergei Guriev, Sciences Po; Aleh Tsyvinski, Yale University

Version:  View help for Version V1

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ChinaPoliticalCyclesMainCode.m text/x-objcsrc 216.2 KB 12/18/2023 07:48:AM
ChinaPollCycleRobustness.m text/x-objcsrc 130.4 KB 12/19/2023 05:24:PM
ComputeHeteroWelf03.m text/x-matlab 854 bytes 08/15/2023 01:55:PM
DataAppendix.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 303.5 KB 12/18/2023 06:46:AM
PlotShades.m text/x-matlab 1.2 KB 08/15/2023 01:55:PM
README.txt text/plain 8.6 KB 12/19/2023 05:25:PM
TablesResults.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 16.6 KB 12/19/2023 05:02:PM
extended_data.mat application/x-matlab-data 13.4 KB 12/19/2023 04:57:PM
hpfilter.m text/x-matlab 2.3 KB 08/15/2023 01:55:PM
neocgrmod_fun_rob.m text/x-matlab 2.3 KB 08/15/2023 01:55:PM

Project Citation: 

Cheremukhin, Anton, Golosov, Mikhail, Guriev, Sergei, and Tsyvinski, Aleh. Data and Code for: “The Political Development Cycle: the Right and the Left in People’s Republic of China from 1953.” Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2024. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2024-03-13. https://doi.org/10.3886/E193344V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary
We quantify the effects of the political development cycle – the fluctuations between the left (Maoist) and the right (pragmatist) development policies – on growth and structural transformation of China in 1953-1978. The left policies prioritized structural transformation towards non-agricultural production and consumption at the cost of agricultural development. The right policies prioritized agricultural consumption through slower structural transformation. The imperfect implementation of these policies led to large welfare costs of the political development cycle in a distorted economy undergoing a structural change.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Economics; China
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      N15 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: Asia including Middle East
      O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
      O14 Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
      O25 Industrial Policy
      O41 One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
      P21 Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Planning, Coordination, and Reform
      P26 Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Political Economy; Property Rights
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage People's Republic of China
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1953 – 2012
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data; program source code

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source
National Bureau of Statistics (2009) "60 years for New China." Jiuzhou Press.
Access from data.cnki.net - China National Knowledge Infrastructure publishing
transcribed from printed table.

State Statistical Bureau, People's Republic of China (1981-) "Statistical Yearbook of China." Hong Kong: Hong Kong Economic Review Publishing House.
Access from www.stats.gov.cn - National Bureau of Statistics of China
transcribed from printed table.

Gregory C. Chow, 1987, "The Chinese Economy." 2nd Edition, World Scientific.
Average wages - Table 4.8 on page 143, transcribed from printed table.

Ash, Robert (2006) "Squeezing the peasants: Grain extraction, food consumption and rural living standards in Mao's China." The China Quarterly, 188, pp. 959-998.
Table 2, Table 3, page 963, 970, transcribed from printed table.

Bai, Chong-En, and Zhenjie Qian (2010) "The factor income distribution in China: 1978-
2007." China Economic Review, 21 (4), pp. 650-670.
Table 5, Figure 5, pages 660-661, transcribed from printed table and figure.

Chow, Gregory (1993) "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108 (3), pp. 809-842.
Table 5, page 820, transcribed from printed table.

Fukao, Kyoji, Kozo Kiyota, and Ximing Yue (2006) "China's Long-Term International Trade Statistics: By Commodity, 1952-1964 and 1981-2000." Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-147, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
Tables A1-A5, pages 17-21, transcribed from printed tables.

Holz, Carsten (2006) "Measuring Chinese Productivity Growth, 1952-2005." manuscript, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
Tables 19, 21, pages 159, 161, transcribed from printed table.

Hsueh, Tien-tung, and Qiang Li (1999) China's national income, 1952-1995. Westview Press.
Table "Whole Nation", pages 180-185, transcribed from printed table.

Imai, Hiroyuki (2000) "The labor income tax equivalent of price scissors in prereform China." Journal of Comparative Economics, 28 (3), pp. 524-544.
Table 3, page 536, transcribed from printed table.

Naughton, Barry (1986) "Savings and investment in China: a macroeconomic analysis." PhD dissertation, Yale University.
Table III-2 on page 109, Table E1 on page 233, transcribed from printed tables.

Niu, Ruofeng, Guo, Wei & Chen, Fan (1991) Zhongguo jingji pianxie xunhuan yu nongye quzhe fazhan (Economically Biased Circles and Tortuous Development of Agriculture in China). Beijing, People's University Press.
Table 1, page 174-175, transcribed from printed table.

Zhang, Li, and Simon XB Zhao (2000) "The intersectoral terms of trade and their impact on urbanisation in China." Post-Communist Economies, 12 (4), pp. 445-462.
Table 5, page 451, referenced, not transcribed.
Table 7, page 454, transcribed from printed table.
Table 9, page 458, transcribed from printed table.

Sheng, Yuming (1993a). Intersectoral resource flows and China’s economic development. St. Martin’s Press.
Table 6.4, page 134, transcribed from printed table.

Sheng, Yuming (1993b). "The capital sources of China's industrialization." The Developing Economies, 31 (2), pp. 173-205.
Table V, page 192, transcribed from printed table.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Yearbooks for various years.
Access from www.sipri.org/yearbook, transcribed from printed tables.

Tang, Anthony M. (1984) An Analytical and Empirical Investigation of Agriculture in Mainland China, 1952-1980. Chung Hua Institute for Economic Research, Mainland China Economic Series, No. 4.
Table 5, page 27, transcribed from printed table.

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