ECIN Replication Package for "U.S. Shale Oil Production and Trend Estimation: Forecasting a Hubbert Model"

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Douglas Reynolds, Alaska Chena Associates

Version:  View help for Version V3

Name File Type Size Last Modified
Art US Hubb 016 019 Rg Fig 4.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 278.3 KB 05/18/2023 12:28:PM
Art US Hubb 019 Rg RP Bd Fig 3.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 20.9 KB 05/27/2023 12:59:PM
Art US Hubb Dt 1 US L 48 Conv Pro.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 69.2 KB 05/27/2023 01:23:PM
Art US Hubb Dt 2 US L 48 Sha Oil.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 46.5 KB 05/16/2023 12:00:PM
Art US Hubb Dt 3 US L 48 Hughes Rig.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 117 KB 05/17/2023 10:03:AM
Art US Hubb Dt 4 EIA WTI Day Pr.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 406.1 KB 05/18/2023 12:26:PM
Art US Hubb Dt 5 Hi Yld Bnd Int.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 122.7 KB 05/19/2023 01:44:PM
Art US Hubb Dt 6 Inflat FRED.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 65.3 KB 05/18/2023 12:25:PM
Art US Hubb Dt 7 EIA An Rigs.xlsx application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet 13.6 KB 05/18/2023 12:24:PM
Art US Hubb Read Me.pdf application/pdf 204.1 KB 06/05/2023 11:20:AM

Project Citation: 

Reynolds, Douglas. ECIN Replication Package for “U.S. Shale Oil Production and Trend Estimation:  Forecasting a Hubbert Model.” Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-06-06. https://doi.org/10.3886/E185944V3

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Scarcity and growth analyses about energy include forecasting extraction rates of non-renewable resources while taking into account technological progression.  One mechanism, Moore’s (1965) Law of technological improvement, encompasses experience enhanced steady cost reductions. Alternatively, synthesis technological change refers to unforeseen innovative breakthroughs.  These trends relate to the Hubbert (1956 & 1962) Curve of U.S shale oil extraction in the U.S. Lower 48 contiguous states.  Price effects, drilling rigs and the price-to-drilling rig relationship are analyzed.  Results show we are at peak U.S. shale oil, and could experience comprehensive decline.  This implies Catton’s (1982) “Age of Exuberance,” and “Carrying Capacity” drawdown.

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Ecn
JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      Q47 Energy Forecasting
Manuscript Number:  View help for Manuscript Number ECIN-Nov-2022-0485.R3
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage United States
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1900 – 2022 (multiple periods)
Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 1980 – 2022 (multiple periods)
Universe:  View help for Universe United States Geology
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) geographic information system (GIS) data; observational data
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes From Government and Private Sources

Methodology

Data Source:  View help for Data Source from government and corporate sources
Collection Mode(s):  View help for Collection Mode(s) web scraping
Scales:  View help for Scales Barrels of oil
Weights:  View help for Weights fluid quantity Barrels of oil
Unit(s) of Observation:  View help for Unit(s) of Observation barrels
Geographic Unit:  View help for Geographic Unit United states Lower 48

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Published Versions

V3 [2023-06-06]

V2 [2023-05-27]

V1 [2023-05-04]

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