Data and Code for: Debt Distress on China's Belt and Road

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Sebastian Horn, World Bank; Bradley Parks, AidData; Carmen Reinhart, Harvard University. Kennedy School of Government. Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy; Christoph Trebesch, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

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Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
HPRT _ Debt Distress on Chinas Belt and Road _ ReplicationFile.xlsx	application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet	318.5 KB	02/24/2023 12:23:PM
ReadMe.pdf	application/pdf	57.6 KB	02/27/2023 04:17:AM
generate figure 4.do	text/plain	2.5 KB	02/27/2023 03:58:AM

Project Citation:

Horn, Sebastian, Parks, Bradley, Reinhart, Carmen , and Trebesch, Christoph . Data and Code for: Debt Distress on China’s Belt and Road. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2023. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2023-05-05. https://doi.org/10.3886/E185461V1

Project Description

Summary: This paper shows that China’s lending boom to developing country sovereigns has largely ended and that debt distress and defaults are increasingly common. Chinese lenders react to this challenge through two main coping strategies. First, bilateral sovereign debt restructurings, typically with maturity extensions but no face value cuts and, second, rescue loans that allow debtors to avoid or delay default. Low-income countries tend to receive debt restructurings, whereas emerging market countries are more likely to receive rescue loans. We speculate that the differential crisis response is due to the different exposure levels of Chinese state banks.

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      F34 International Lending and Debt Problems
      G15 International Financial Markets
      H63 National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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V1 [2023-05-05]

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